Specialist Arms Forum
Battlefleet Gothic => [BFG] Discussion => Topic started by: Phthisis on March 15, 2011, 04:18:18 AM
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I see the word 'average' tossed around here all the time with reference to the expected number of hits a particular battery of weapons will cause. For example, a player gets to roll 6 dice to hit a target with 5+ armor. Based on this situation, most if not everyone, around here would say that such a shot would average 2 hits. Eg.. There are 6 dice, and a 1/3 chance of both dice hitting, therefore an average roll would be 6x(1/3)=2. This average is called a 'mean' average and, although easily and quickly calculated, it's somewhat misleading. First of all, results of dice rolls that have odds of less than 50% (like 1/3) do not follow an even distribution and are skewed towards failure. Each individual dice has a greater chance of failure than success and that doesn't change if you roll 2 dice or 12. Averages based off of means can be misleading this way. It's like if you averaged the amount of money 4 men have when 3 of them only have $1 and the 4th has $100. You'll get a skewed view of reality. Mean averages aren't the best way to figure your odds when we are dealing with dice. Using them to calculate the expected damage output of weapons batteries tends to give the player a feeling that their WBs never live up to expectations. Second, the mean average doesn't really give you enough info to make a good tactical decision. For example, what are the chances of missing completely? What are the chances that I will roll more than 2 hits? Knowing these probabilities can give you the tools you need to use your fleet effectively.
3 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 29.63%
1 hits = 44.44%
2 hits = 22.21%
3 hits = 3.7%
4 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 19.75%
1 hits = 39.5%
2 hits = 29.62%
3 hits = 9.87%
4 hits = 1.23%
5 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 13.17%
1 hits = 32.92%
2 hits = 32.92%
3 hits = 16.45%
4 hits = 4.11%
5 hits = .41%
6 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 8.78%
1 hits = 26.34%
2 hits = 32.92%
3 hits = 21.94%
4 hits = 8.22%
5 hits = 1.64%
6 hits = .13%
This is about all I have time for at the moment, but I can provide probabilities by request for any number of dice and armor value.
One thing to notice about weapons batteries is that the number of average hits doesn't go up proportionally to the number of dice that you add. This is even more true when facing 6+ armor. This is why many players say that their WBs never seem to perform up to their expectations. For example, with 6WBs the mean average is 2 hits. The likelihood of rolling 2 or fewer hits is about 68%. The mean average of 2 hits seems to suggest otherwise because without understanding the actual probability, we tend to assume that the distribution of probability is even.
I believe that this goes some of the distance in explaining why some players prefer lances to WBs (or Murders with lances to Carnages). As they always hit on a 4+ they tend to be much more reliable than low numbers of WB dice and also a lot more predictable.
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It's really not that hard to calculate, and I am surprised more people don't do it.
for hitting on a 5+, it's a 1/3 for each dice rolled...so
(1/3) * (1/3) * (1/3) * (1/3) * (1/3) * (1/3) = all six dice hitting...just reduce or add the amount you are multiplying by to get your actual probability.
For calculating misses, you use (2/3) instead. In all cases, it's a 33% chance that each dice hits, independently of each other. So rolling 6 dice does not automatically = 2 hits. It's more likely that you will get a couple of hits, but that's more averages than statistics
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Okay then. I want dice vs 4+ armour (eg lance shots) and hit chances.
thanks in advance. ;)
So far nothing new.
And from what I read across the net new players often prefer lances. (I did) As you get more hang of tactics weapon batteries become cooler and cooler.
And I still fail to see how a lance murder outperforms a Carnage in a broadside.
4 wb + 2l vs 16wb.
Some averages for that?
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So it's a (1/2) * (1/2) * how many more dice you are rolling.
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I'm lazy, make me a list like in post 1.
:)
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It's not technically statistics either way. This is probability. The usual way is just averaging, which passes for neither statistics nor probability in the scientific world.
The method you describe is to calculate the chance of either hitting with everything or missing with everything. Its everything in the middle thats hard to calculate and thats where most people get tripped up. Arguing with Sigiroth made me realize that people are taking mean averages too literally. But the actual likleihood of damage falls behind the mean average with each dice added.
I think its particularly interesting that whether rolling 6 dice or 3 dice, the probability is still heavily grouped around only 1 or 2 hits, and with 6 dice the odds of getting 5 or 6 gits is laughably low. Mean averaging doesn't suggest this and I don't think most players have realistic expectations of how their gunnery will perform in game.
@Horizon
Glad you asked!
The Carnage utilizes the 3 dice profile above when abeam at 45, and the 6 dice profile when inside 30 in clean space.
Here's for the lance murder for both 45 and 30 bands:
2 dice 4+, 1 dice at 5+
0 hits = 16.66%
1 hits = 41.66%
2 hits = 33.33%
3 hits = 8.33%
Analysis: At 30-45 a clear advantage for the Murder. Less likely to miss and much more likely to score hits at every level.
At 15-30, the Carnage clearly surpasses the Murder, which is to be expected, but not as much as one may have thought. There is only about a 30% chance the Carnage will actually perform better than the lance Murder. That is, unless there is a blast marker in the way. Then the Murder would perform better again. So I guess analysis is only for the first Carnage.
My main point about preference for the murder is that I prefer to fire broadsides from long range and I stay there throughout the game. As long as I stay in that band, the lance Murder will do much better. Combined with the opportunistic lance fire from the prow, I prefer the lance Murder. I still take the Carnage, but building a gunline I'd favor the Murder. If I wanted to get in close I'd take the Slaughter instead of the Carnage.
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Hi,
where to start?
Ah yeah: staying at long range with Murder is not an option. Using the prow lances @ 60cm is closing with enemy, thus cannot stay at range. Thus it comes within 45cm. This is medium range.
You do know the broadsides are 45cm on the lance murder? ;)
The Carnage can always be abeam and stay at 60cm, lend its 10wb to the long range lances of Desolator, Styx, Dev's, etc.
Also: your averages are vs abeam targets. Since the Murder is closing in a duel (since it needs to, the Carnage doesn't) with the Carnage, the Carnage gets more dice.
Carnage above 30cm:
-- vs closing : 8 dice wb
-- vs moving away : 6 dice wb
-- vs abeam : 3 dice wb
Murder above 30cm:
-- vs closing : 2 dice wb + 2 l
-- vs moving away : 1 dice wb + 2 l
-- vs abeam : 1 dice wb + 2 l
Under 30cm the differences goes up high.
And above 45cm the Carnage vs Murder = 10wb vs 2 l
It seems you isolate the single point the lance murder could be better (vs abeam) but forget the multiple benefits of the Carnage.
Look the murder will go prow on to use its lances. At 45cm range it'll go broadside (either way lance or regular Murder, same doctrine).
The Carnage will go abeam at once at the 60cm abeam band. And have 10wb's all the time.
Since only few enemy fleets have ranges +45cm the enemy will be closing. A win point for the Carnage! If the enemy gets to 45cm. The Carnage gets more effective (+6wb) and still fire at prows. Yay.
So: Murder NEEDS to close. The Carnage does NOT NEED to close. Carnage will wait to see enemy closing.
A ship that closes is more vulnerable. A ship abeam less.
What would happen in a 1:1 duel?
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A point worth noting:
If the lance-variant Murder has broadsides roughly equivalent to the Carnage (I'm not entirely convinced it is, but I'm working up the numbers), the Inferno cruiser in the new Powers of Chaos pdf is almost certainly better than either ship--ten points to swap the lance-murder's forward lances for fp 6 lfr 60cm batteries pretty clearly seems to be a good buy.
The Firestorm's Broadside is identical to the Lance-Murder's, except that its prow battery can participate as well, meaning that its functional broadside is strictly better (by about 50%) than the Lance-Murder's. Its prow battery stacks up like this:
At all ranges and aspects, the Lance-Murder gets 2 dice at 4+ (expected return: 3/3)
Probability of 0 hits: 25%
Probability of 1 hit: 50%
Probability of 2 hits: 25%
At >30cm to 60cm, closing
Carnage/Inferno get 3 dice at 5+ (expected return: 3/3)
0 : 29.630%
1 : 44.444%
2 : 22.222%
3 : 3.704%
At >30cm to 60cm, abeam
Carnage/Inferno get 1 die at 5+ (expected return: 1/3)
0 : 66.667%
1 : 33.333%
At >15cm to 30cm, closing
Carnage/Inferno get 4 dice at 5+ (expected return: 4/3)
0 : 19.753%
1 : 39.506%
2 : 29.630%
3 : 9.877%
4 : 1.235%
At >15cm to 30cm, abeam
Carnage/Inferno get 2 dice at 5+ (expected return: 2/3)
0 : 44.444%
1 : 44.444%
2 : 11.111%
At <15cm, closing
Carnage/Inferno get 5 dice at 5+ (expected return: 5/3)
0 : 13.169%
1 : 32.922%
2 : 32.922%
3 : 16.461%
4 : 4.115%
5 : 0.412%
At <15cm, abeam
Carnage/Inferno get 3 dice at 5+ (expected return: 3/3)
0 : 29.630%
1 : 44.444%
2 : 22.222%
3 : 3.704%
The Lance-Murder is significantly better against abeam targets outside of 15cm
The Lance-Murder is slightly better against abeam targets within 15cm
The Lance-Murder is slightly better against closing targets beyond 30cm
The Inferno is significantly better against closing targets within 30cm
So, all in all, a moderate advantage to the Lance-Murder in terms of forward-arc shots and a significant advantage to the Inferno in terms of broadside-arc shots. Really, you guys should probably be suggesting the Inferno to newbies, over either of the older ships. It's clearly better than the Murder, and I imagine it stands up to the Carnage well, too.
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I see the word 'average' tossed around here all the time with reference to the expected number of hits a particular battery of weapons will cause. For example, a player gets to roll 6 dice to hit a target with 5+ armor. Based on this situation, most if not everyone, around here would say that such a shot would average 2 hits. Eg.. There are 6 dice, and a 1/3 chance of both dice hitting, therefore an average roll would be 6x(1/3)=2. This average is called a 'mean' average and, although easily and quickly calculated, it's somewhat misleading. First of all, results of dice rolls that have odds of less than 50% (like 1/3) do not follow an even distribution and are skewed towards failure. Each individual dice has a greater chance of failure than success and that doesn't change if you roll 2 dice or 12. Averages based off of means can be misleading this way. It's like if you averaged the amount of money 4 men have when 3 of them only have $1 and the 4th has $100. You'll get a skewed view of reality. Mean averages aren't the best way to figure your odds when we are dealing with dice. Using them to calculate the expected damage output of weapons batteries tends to give the player a feeling that their WBs never live up to expectations. Second, the mean average doesn't really give you enough info to make a good tactical decision. For example, what are the chances of missing completely? What are the chances that I will roll more than 2 hits? Knowing these probabilities can give you the tools you need to use your fleet effectively.
They're not "skewed toward failure", they are actually right skewed, which, if anything, is skewed towards success. The chances of multiple hits is what drags the mean up after all. I'm sorry, what's the chance of a Murder doing hull damage to an enemy cruiser again?
3 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 29.63%
1 hits = 44.44%
2 hits = 22.21%
3 hits = 3.7%
4 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 19.75%
1 hits = 39.5%
2 hits = 29.62%
3 hits = 9.87%
4 hits = 1.23%
5 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 13.17%
1 hits = 32.92%
2 hits = 32.92%
3 hits = 16.45%
4 hits = 4.11%
5 hits = .41%
6 dice 5+ armor
0 hits = 8.78%
1 hits = 26.34%
2 hits = 32.92%
3 hits = 21.94%
4 hits = 8.22%
5 hits = 1.64%
6 hits = .13%
Yeah yeah, you're not telling us anything we don't already know. We went through this whole thing with the discussion about probabilities of destroying Eldar escorts vs normal ones. Yes, we know that expected average hits isn't the whole story, that the chances of getting a certain number of hits counts too. However, it doesn't really matter in the case of the Carnage/Murder debate. The Carnage is your main gunship. You fire them first. That's why it's clean space. Your other ships often have to deal with BMs, unless you've got a squadron of, say, 3 Devs inside 30cm and a good firing solution on a secondary target. Then they may get a clean shot too.
What you want with your main gunship is the chance of spectacular success. If two systems have the same average number of hits (say, locked on Murder/Carnage against closing 6+ armour at 60cm range) then while one may have a lower chance at, say scoring 1 hit or 2 hits, it will have a greater chance of scoring 3 or more hits. This increased chance of higher damage will actually make up for the reduced chance of lower damage, because the averages are equal. If it didn't make up for it then it would have a lower average. In BFG there are 2 mechanics that actually favour the spiky damage. One is its unpredictability. This makes it harder for the opponent to predict the outcome and therefore harder for them to predict whether BFI is worthwhile. Therefore choosing whether to brace or not approaches blind guess level effectiveness. The other mechanic that favours spike damage is shielding. If you consistently put out 2 damage per turn against a 2 shield target you will never destroy it. If you have a ship that varies 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3 then it will eventually destroy the target. One that varies 0, 2, 4, 0, 2, 4 will destroy it quicker and one that varies 0, 0, 6, 0, 0, 6 will do it even quicker again all the while all of these do the same average damage.
That is not to say that reliability of fire isn't useful. It is, when you need to do one more hit to reach a crippled threshold, or you need to destroy that last escort before it can disengage and deny you VPs or the maximum damage the target can soak is limited (say 1 or 2 hits left) then lances really come into their own. Lances also have an advantage when you're out of position, or your only target is behind BMs, etc. Therefore lances are a support weapon. Primary gunships should, all else being equal, make use of WBs. Also, as a side note, pure ships are better than hybrids.
One thing to notice about weapons batteries is that the number of average hits doesn't go up proportionally to the number of dice that you add.
Er, yes it does. For every 1 dice you add, you add 0.33 hits against 5+ to the average. That is a linear proportional increase. Against 6+ armour each dice adds +0.17 hits to the average. Again, linear proportional. Against 4+ armour, you guessed it, another linear proportional increase of 0.5 hits.
I believe that this goes some of the distance in explaining why some players prefer lances to WBs (or Murders with lances to Carnages). As they always hit on a 4+ they tend to be much more reliable than low numbers of WB dice and also a lot more predictable.
And understanding that the sense of disappointment that people feel is simply a misunderstanding of how probability works, not an actual performance issue with the Carnage or WBs in general why then don't you acknowledge that the Carnage is far and away the better ship and recommend it, with the note that it may seem to under perform but in the long run will actually do better than the Murder?
Also, I have no idea why you keep comparing the Carnage to an abeam ship at long range. The vast majority of fleets will have closing 5+ or 6+ prows to shoot at. There are extraordinarily few circumstances where a Carnage will be forced to shoot at an abeam ship at long range. Also, I don't know how you're going to get the Murder to 45cm and maintain that range bracket. The Carnage can't maintain a 60cm range bracket against other fleets, so I don't see why you expect to be able to achieve it with the Murder.
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At >30cm to 60cm, closing
Carnage/Inferno get 3 dice at 5+ (expected return: 3/3)
0 : 29.630%
1 : 44.444%
2 : 22.222%
3 : 3.704%
At >30cm to 60cm, abeam
Carnage/Inferno get 1 die at 5+ (expected return: 1/3)
0 : 66.667%
1 : 33.333%
What the .... fock?
The Carnage vs a closing target above 30cm has 8 dice. Not 3 .
The Carnage vs an abeam target above 30cm has 3 dice. Not 1.
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That's a forward arc comparison, not a broadside comparison, Horizon--the point was to compare the forward arc of the Inferno (identical to the forward arc of the Carnage) to the forward arc of the Murder, since the Inferno's broadside is strictly better.
I stated that quite specifically--gotta read a little more carefully, there, Horizon. =P
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Perhaps I should read better but why on earth should I fire the prow only from a Carnage? I cannot comprehend that... ;)
You need to compare total ship capability. That is that the Carnage prow weaposn swivel left front right and add strenght to the long & medium range broadsides.
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@LoW
The Inferno is part of a document that I reject in its entirety. I would not recommend any ships from that document to anyone, as I would not play with or against any of them myself. Also, the profiles aren't identical. The Carnage gets a total of 10WB at 60cm vs the 6 of the Inferno. Due to poor WB scaling with range the Inferno is better than the Carnage in the 30-45cm range bracket, and has parity in the 15-30cm bracket, though is inferior in the 0-15cm and 45-60cm brackets.
That's a forward arc comparison, not a broadside comparison, Horizon--the point was to compare the forward arc of the Inferno (identical to the forward arc of the Carnage) to the forward arc of the Murder, since the Inferno's broadside is strictly better.
I stated that quite specifically--gotta read a little more carefully, there, Horizon. =P
It is a pointless comparison however. Pointing your prow at the enemy is asking for your ship to be blown apart for a Chaos fleet and since the Carnage and the Inferno can simply go abeam and still fire their prow weaponry then this is what you do.
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@LoW
The Inferno is part of a document that I reject in its entirety. I would not recommend any ships from that document to anyone, as I would not play with or against any of them myself. Also, the profiles aren't identical. The Carnage gets a total of 10WB at 60cm vs the 6 of the Inferno. Due to poor WB scaling with range the Inferno is better than the Carnage in the 30-45cm range bracket, and has parity in the 15-30cm bracket, though is inferior in the 0-15cm and 45-60cm brackets.
I see I guess I thought that was generally considered to be a cannon document. Oh well.
Also, I never said the Carnage was identical--I said that the broadside-only guns on the Lance Murder are identical to the broadside-only guns on the Inferno, which means that the Inferno (with its lfr prow battery) has strictly better effective broadsides. I haven't offered a comparison between the Inferno and the Carnage.
It is a pointless comparison however. Pointing your prow at the enemy is asking for your ship to be blown apart for a Chaos fleet and since the Carnage and the Inferno can simply go abeam and still fire their prow weaponry then this is what you do.
It wasn't a comparison between the Carnage and the Inferno--it was a comparison between the Inferno and the Lance-Murder. The Inferno's effective broadside is strictly superior to the Lance-Murder's (and its broadside-only armament is identical), which means that the comparison between the Lance-Murder's forward armament and the Inferno's forward armament (which happens to be identical to that of the Carnage) certainly does have a point--it's the only point on which the Lance-Murder can hope to offer competition against the Inferno (except price).
Even if the Carnage never intentionally sets itself up for forward shots, they do have the potential to arise, and they're only one of the three relevant points of comparison between the Lance-Murder and the Inferno whose conclusion isn't obvious.
This should address Horizon's observation, too.
Again, you guys need to read what I wrote a little more carefully. =P
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Just in case Horizon still can't figure out what I'm trying to say, here's a response to your post, directly:
Perhaps I should read better but why on earth should I fire the prow only from a Carnage? I cannot comprehend that... ;)
You need to compare total ship capability. That is that the Carnage prow weaposn swivel left front right and add strenght to the long & medium range broadsides.
You're still not reading carefully enough. I'm not firing the Carnage's prow weapon by itself. I'm comparing the Inferno's forward armament to the Lance-Murder's forward armament, because it's the only point on which the two differ where one isn't strictly superior to the other--and that makes it critical to the overall comparison of the two ships.
Also, I know that the Carnage's prow guns swivel. So do the Inferno's. Obviously =P
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Inferno is great, except for the name. As ive said before, so happy to have a 'Lunar' in my chaos lists.
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@left of west
Just because Sigi doesn't like it, it doesn't mean you can't use it. He doesn't have any authority over what GW puts out or what you play. If the Inferno fits your play style and your opponents allow the list, then theres no reason not to use it.
Also, check out Plaxor's revised lists. Some very good stuff in there.
@Horizon
Youre somewhat correct about running a Murder straight at the enemy. 5+ armor closing is asking for it. You either have to do it at an opponent with short range or weak guns or no toward a facing with no guns at all like the shild wall of 6+ prow armor that the IN has. And it has to be done en masse. We can't just think of two ships alone in clean space. Strategy counts a lot in BFG.
Ok, now stats for closing 6+ armor vs Carnage & Murder lance variant broadsides.
Murder, 2 dice at 4+, one dice at 6+
0 hits = 20.83%
1 hits = 54.16%
2 hits = 20.83%
3 hits = 4.16%
Carnage over 30cm, 8 dice at 6+
0 hits = 23.27%
1 hits = 37.21%
2 hits = 26.03%
3 hits = 10.41%
4 hits = 2.6%
5+ hits = negligable
Carnage at 15-30cm, 11 dice at 6+
0 hits = 13.47%
1 hits = 29.62%
2 hits = 29.6%
3 hits = 17.75%
4 hits = 7.09%
5 hits =1.98%
6+ hits = negligable
Analysis: At longer range the Murder is more likely to hit at all and is stronger in the 1-2 hits range, but the Carnage has a small chance of scoring more than 2. Personally I'd pick the Murder, but if youre a gambler the Carnage is better. Of course, with a blast marker in the way the Murder is superior in all respects.
At closer range the Carnage has the advantage, once again if there are no blast markers in the way. However the advantage isn't a very big one. The Carnage is more likely to hit, but there isn't much of a chance of rolling that much higher than a Murder.
@Sigirogh
Glad you knew this already. Did you know that I knew you'd say you knew? But a lot of people never get past mean average calculations.
There are three different kinds of average. The low probability of very high numbers of successes rolled drags the mean average higher than could be normally expected. I think more than a few people would be surprised that there is a greater chance they will roll lower than the mean average than that they will roll above it and that the difference between rolling under and over grows with each additional dice you roll. Some of us are gamblers, like yourself, who will trade reliability for a small chance of spectacular success. Others, like me like reliable steady firepower that is less likely to fail us when we most need it.
Ok, so so far the carnage performs better at close range than a Murder, but the Murder is better at long ranges or close ranges with blasts in the way.
So lets suppose I took 2 lance Murders and a Slaughter instead of 3 Carnages? That saves me 35pts and if I use Slaughter up close and the Murderd at range I get better damage output.
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Do you, based on those math still prefer Murder at long range?
I still fail to see how the Murder can operate at longer range then Carnage.
Also those stats are against 6+ armour, vs 5+ I reckon the Carnage starts to eat more.
You say "think more then 1 ship", good then each % goes up for every combo.
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Yeah, of course. The math shows that the Murder is superior at long range. The Murder becomes even more superior on LO. The math also shows the Carnage is only really worth its points under 30cm. And it reveals the Carnage to be a pea shooter at extreme range. Three of them have only a 32% chance of breaking through 2 shields. The Carnage can also only do its dirt on targets without blast markers because once the target has one its power drops off dramatically. The Murder is more reliable because it hits more and blast markers don't effect their firepower. Of course, Ive done this math before and knew I preferred the Murder already.
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The Murder is superior at >45cm against all targets if it is closing and the Carnage is closing or broadside.
The Carnage is superior at >45cm against all targets if it is broadside and the Murder is broadside.
The Murder is superior at 30cm - 45cm against targets which are abeam.
The Carnage is superior at 30cm -45cm against targets which are closing.
The Carnage is extremely similar to the Murder at <30cm against targets which are abeam.
The Carnage is superior to the Murder at <30cm against targets which are closing.
The Carnage is superior to the Murder at <15cm against targets regardless of aspect.
I'll grant you, Pthisis, the Lance-variant Murder is a pretty reasonable match against the Carnage (as opposed to the regular Murder, which is substantially worse). That said, the Carnage comes out ahead in a significant number of the relevant situations. It's only beaten out at extreme range by the Murder if the Murder is closing (which is bad). The Murder is basically only better in the 30cm-45cm band, while it loses out in the entire 0cm-30cm band and, really, in the 45cm-60cm band as well, since it has to close to fire there at all.
I wasn't really aware of the lance variant until recently, and it certainly is a more reasonable pick, but I still have to say that the Carnage seems better.
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this topic amuses me :)
if you are looking to decide which target to fire at, probability analysis is your friend
if you are looking to decide which ship is better against a certain target over several encounters average will be more reliable
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@left of west
Several or those conclusions require some big caveats. Ships have to concentrate fire to really cause any damage. Once a shield goes down, it is surrounded by a blast marker. That blast marker forces a right column shift for the Carnage's batteries. Normally this means that only the first Carnage is going to get full dice. The only way all your Carnages get full dice is if they are all squadroned and all the conditions are met to roll the simultaneously. The closer the target is, the harder this is to do. Murders don't have to worry about blast markers in any of its facings.
Many of the situations discussed actually go to the Murder's favor once a BM is in the way.
The Murder would now be superior abeam at 15-30cm, superior abeam at 30-45cm, superior closing at 30-45, and very close at closing 15-30cm. Blast markers are very common, and those 4 situations are by far the most common.
Also LO tilts things in the Murder's favor.
The Carnage is superior at above 45 and below 15. If I want close up power I will get a Slaughter, or long range I will use an Acheron.
In another post you brought up the Devestation being better at broadsides than the lance Murder. This is true (and now I'm fairly sure you aren't sigiroth in disguise) but I'm not going to LO with a Dev or use any special order but RO. Also, the Devs are too valuable to risk, don't have forward lances and cost more. I take a Carnage and several Devs along side my Murders.
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The Murder is superior at >45cm against all targets if it is closing and the Carnage is closing or broadside.
?
Since Carnage shoots first it has less issues with blast markers.
Acheron is awesome and best mid-range ship (45cm) but not best long range.
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I use the Carnage myself and always fire it first. But this exercise isn't about whether a single Carnage should be taken. Its about which chaos cruiser makes a better backbone for the fleet, ie which cruiser should you take more of. Multiple Carnages can step on each others toes. Multiple Murders work great in concert, squadroned or not.
Glad we agree on the Acheron! Too bad its a heavy cruiser and not a standard cruiser. ::)
Left of west is referring to the 2 lances on the front of the Murder being better than anything the Carnage cn put out at that range.
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So... 2 lances is better then 10wb? (LoW remark)?
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Erm.... Yeah. 10WB at 60 is 2 dice on a 5+. 2 lances at 60 at an abeam target is 2 dice on a 4+. It's quite a bit better.
The stats on closing 6+ armor for a carnage at 5 dice still favors the lances, though I didn't post the numbers its easy to infer from both the mean average and the probability of 8 dice I posted earlier.
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Erm.... Yeah. 10WB at 60 is 2 dice on a 5+. 2 lances at 60 at an abeam target is 2 dice on a 4+. It's quite a bit better.
The stats on closing 6+ armor for a carnage at 5 dice still favors the lances, though I didn't post the numbers its easy to infer from both the mean average and the probability of 8 dice I posted earlier.
10wb above 30cm:
vs closing capital = 5 dice.
vs moving away capital = 4 dice.
vs abeam capital = 2 dice.
Thus:
closing: 5 wb dice on a 6+ vs 2 lance on a 4+
moving away* 4wb dice on 5+ vs 2 lance on a 4+
abeam* 2wb dice on a 5+ vs 2 lance on a 4+
* = Only Marines & Necrons have 6+ all round armour. 5+ is more common. Even some races have 5+ worth mentioning.
So...
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Also, I never said the Carnage was identical--I said that the broadside-only guns on the Lance Murder are identical to the broadside-only guns on the Inferno, which means that the Inferno (with its lfr prow battery) has strictly better effective broadsides. I haven't offered a comparison between the Inferno and the Carnage.
Which it does. However, when you said that you were comparing broadsides of the Inferno and Murder you put Inferno/Carnage in the comparison, which suggests you were equating these two ships. Of course, you weren't comparing the total broadsides, just the value of the 6WBs. That is the source of the confusion.
Horizon is right though, there's no point in comparing the prow weapon value of the Inferno with that of the Murder. You need to compare the Murders' prow weaponry to the entire combined broadside/prow of the Inferno. At > 45cm this does equate to simply comparing the prow weaponry since the Infernos' broadside has nothing to add in this bracket.
It wasn't a comparison between the Carnage and the Inferno--it was a comparison between the Inferno and the Lance-Murder. The Inferno's effective broadside is strictly superior to the Lance-Murder's (and its broadside-only armament is identical), which means that the comparison between the Lance-Murder's forward armament and the Inferno's forward armament (which happens to be identical to that of the Carnage) certainly does have a point--it's the only point on which the Lance-Murder can hope to offer competition against the Inferno (except price).
Yes, the only reason to take the Murder would be to make use of its prow weaponry.
Even if the Carnage never intentionally sets itself up for forward shots, they do have the potential to arise, and they're only one of the three relevant points of comparison between the Lance-Murder and the Inferno whose conclusion isn't obvious.
Hmm, in all the times I've played with and against Carnages this hasn't arisen once.
Again, you guys need to read what I wrote a little more carefully. =P
Indeed.
The Murder is superior at >45cm against all targets if it is closing and the Carnage is closing or broadside.
Incorrect. Against a closing ship with 6+ armour the (abeam) Carnage equals the Murders performance when on LO (Murder better by 1/6 of a hit otherwise). Against a closing ship with 5+ armour the Carnage beats the Murder by 1/6 of a hit when the Carnage is not locked on and the Murder is locked on. When both locked on the Carnage scores 2.78 hits vs only 1.5. That's a hell of a difference for a supposedly inferior long range ship.
The Carnage is superior at >45cm against all targets if it is broadside and the Murder is broadside.
Correct.
The Murder is superior at 30cm - 45cm against targets which are abeam.
The lance-variant Murder is superior against all non-Eldar abeam ships by 0.33 to 0.38 hits. The regular Murder is not. It's worth noting that the normal Murder has its advantages over the lance variant at normal to close range. Against Eldar the Carnage averages 1.5~2.25 hull hits (ie, functions like 3 shield ignoring lances). The normal Murder is 1~1.5 hits, the lance variant averages 0.74~1.1 hits including incidental BM damage (half the damage of the Carnage).
The Carnage is superior at 30cm -45cm against targets which are closing.
Yarp.
The Carnage is extremely similar to the Murder at <30cm against targets which are abeam.
Incorrect. 2 hits for Carnage on average, 1.33 for the Murder (3.33 vs 2.06 on LO). That's a clear advantage to the Carnage, much more than the slight advantages the Murder has seen.
The Carnage is superior to the Murder at <30cm against targets which are closing.
Yarp.
The Carnage is superior to the Murder at <15cm against targets regardless of aspect.
Yarp.
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@left of west
Just because Sigi doesn't like it, it doesn't mean you can't use it. He doesn't have any authority over what GW puts out or what you play. If the Inferno fits your play style and your opponents allow the list, then theres no reason not to use it.
Also, check out Plaxor's revised lists. Some very good stuff in there.
He asked why I didn't recommend it, I told him. Just because I don't like it does not mean he can't use it, yes. However I have reasons for not liking it. He hasn't asked or been informed of those, and he may or may not agree with them.
@Horizon
Youre somewhat correct about running a Murder straight at the enemy. 5+ armor closing is asking for it. You either have to do it at an opponent with short range or weak guns or no toward a facing with no guns at all like the shild wall of 6+ prow armor that the IN has. And it has to be done en masse. We can't just think of two ships alone in clean space. Strategy counts a lot in BFG.
Right, so let's assume that your opponent has no guns that can take advantage of your prow whatsoever. What is gained by closing with an IN fleet? The IN depend on getting close so they can use both broadsides. You're playing into their hands. Also, it makes it harder to avoid their torps when you're closing and easier for them to be able to shotgun them.
If you're going to do this sort thing then why not use Slaughters instead? At least when you do get to broadside range you'll have the firepower to compete.
Ok, now stats for closing 6+ armor vs Carnage & Murder lance variant broadsides.
Murder, 2 dice at 4+, one dice at 6+
0 hits = 20.83%
1 hits = 54.16%
2 hits = 20.83%
3 hits = 4.16%
Carnage over 30cm, 8 dice at 6+
0 hits = 23.27%
1 hits = 37.21%
2 hits = 26.03%
3 hits = 10.41%
4 hits = 2.6%
5+ hits = negligable
So the lances have a 75% chance of getting 0-1 hits whereas the Carnage has only a 60% chance of 0-1 hit. Hmm, seems like advantage to the Carnage to me.
Carnage at 15-30cm, 11 dice at 6+
0 hits = 13.47%
1 hits = 29.62%
2 hits = 29.6%
3 hits = 17.75%
4 hits = 7.09%
5 hits =1.98%
6+ hits = negligable
Analysis: At longer range the Murder is more likely to hit at all and is stronger in the 1-2 hits range, but the Carnage has a small chance of scoring more than 2. Personally I'd pick the Murder, but if youre a gambler the Carnage is better. Of course, with a blast marker in the way the Murder is superior in all respects.
At closer range the Carnage has the advantage, once again if there are no blast markers in the way. However the advantage isn't a very big one. The Carnage is more likely to hit, but there isn't much of a chance of rolling that much higher than a Murder.
The Murder has a 25% of scoring 2 hits, the Carnage has a 40% chance of 2+ hits. So greater chance at significant damage and an actual possibility of more than 2 hits.
@Sigirogh
Glad you knew this already. Did you know that I knew you'd say you knew?
:P
But a lot of people never get past mean average calculations.
There are three different kinds of average.
I take it you're talking about the mean, median and mode. Mode is pretty worthless, since it's 1 for each ship. Mean is similarly uninformative since the Carnage has equal or greater mean for the most part and you're not willing to accept that as evidence. So you're looking at the median? So you're reducing it to a pass/fail based on the number of dice you're rolling? If we take that idea to its logical conclusion then having 1 dice that hits on a 1+ is better than having 3 dice hitting on a 4+ because you have a higher proportion of successes.
The low probability of very high numbers of successes rolled drags the mean average higher than could be normally expected. I think more than a few people would be surprised that there is a greater chance they will roll lower than the mean average than that they will roll above it and that the difference between rolling under and over grows with each additional dice you roll. Some of us are gamblers, like yourself, who will trade reliability for a small chance of spectacular success. Others, like me like reliable steady firepower that is less likely to fail us when we most need it.
Ok, so so far the carnage performs better at close range than a Murder, but the Murder is better at long ranges or close ranges with blasts in the way.
So lets suppose I took 2 lance Murders and a Slaughter instead of 3 Carnages? That saves me 35pts and if I use Slaughter up close and the Murderd at range I get better damage output.
Actually, at long range the 3 Carnages would demolish the 2 Murders and up close it's 34WB+2L vs 48WB, so again the Carnages win convincingly. You could say that the SMM will get to close range quicker and so it will be a comparison of those 3 ships up close vs the 3 Carnages from further away. This is valid, but also, you'll get hammered on the way in as well as having less long ranged fire for on the way in.
Anyway, as it happens, I'm not a gambling type. It's just that the mechanics of the game favour the Carnage and the Carnage has far more potential up close than the Murder. Since these two ships compete for the same spot in the fleet there's just no room for the Murder. In fact, you know, the very best place I can see for the Murder is against Necrons. The Carnage is a great ship against Necrons. If you need to do 1 extra point of damage (rather than force a brace) then the Carnage has the best chance. If already braced it's a numbers game, and WBs are superior. The WBs actually have a slightly better chance of causing damage when the ship is unbraced and because there's less gain for bracing against WBs than lances they might not. So best chance of causing that damage is with the Carnage. However, the Murder loses nothing by firing its prow lances at a separate target, and since both WBs and lances are needed against Necrons it is just as good as any other hybrid (like the Lunar) so the Murder comes into its own here. Carnage is not weak, but the Murder is not completely owned like it is against other fleets. In effect, having both ships in the one fleet becomes viable.
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It's worth noting that use of squadroning pretty much obviates the blast marker problem. Two or three Carnages firing in sequence suffer from reduced firepower. Two or three Carnages firing as a squadron don't.
With regards to ships beyond 45cm: it's true that the Carnage is better against ones which are closing. Same with the 15-30 band against targets abeam. Not sure what numbers I was looking at, there. Sorry.
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One last note about clean vs dirty space. Yes, the game gets cluttered. You do however get a number of clean shots in each turn. That's why the comparisons noted have been clean space, because the Carnages would be fired first, as your primary gunships. Lances are great support guns and so lance-boats are support ships.
Towards the end of the game you may not be guaranteed clear shots. However at this point you'll be at closer range. All you have to do is avoid the furthest right column against 5+ armour and the next column in against 6+ armour, but even this last one isn't that bad (comparison against variant Murder), dropping only 1/6 of a hit when not locked on and gaining parity if locked on.
Yes, Carnages are generally in squadron. In larger games you will have more than one target and so get more than one clean shot. This can be from another Carnage squadron or maybe just improved performance from another ship or squadron (perhaps a Vengeance or the fixed Despoiler for example).
Forming squadrons is beneficial for increasing chances of LO as well as combined firepower. On the other hand the MMH combination so often favoured has no reason to squadron beyond trying to hide the Hades. The Carnages being on your back lines and abeam are quite resilient, whereas the MMH squadron will take a pounding, so take a huge amount of damage or brace and lose a lot of firepower.
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I used to play the 3M+1H combo and yes, it will in all likelihood be at the receiving end of a lot of shots. However, in my case I do accept that reality and I will not brace, trusting to my shields and armor just so I can get out 2 turns of 10 lances on LO against a non Eldar opponent. Sure a ship could be crippled but by the third turn the squadron should already be amidst the enemy formation and still on LO and would be trying for at least targets in each fire arc.
The Styx and Devs would then be supporting the squadron with AC and additional long range lance fire to pick off the cripples from the 3MH attack.
This isn't a tactic meant for everyone. The tactic is one I would risk and requires one to accept that ships will most likely be crippled but that the squadron might itself also do serious damage to the enemy fleet. Crazy? Maybe but it does work.
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Ok, so I think we have narrowed it down. If you squadron all your Carnages together AND stay abeam AND plan on fighting under 30cm AND there are no blast markers in the way AND your targets will largely be capital ships and defenses, then the Carnage is your ship. With the exception of Eldar, lance Murders are better in every other situation.
Of course if youre planning on fighting inside 30cm you'd be much better off taking Slaughters.
The supremacy of the Carnage is not so clean cut as Sigi and Horizon have made it sound. If youre playing slop, especially under 2000pts, with no real strategy then the squdroned Carnage is a good all rounder. But if you have a plan and are savvy to how a Chaos fleet can work, youre better off with Slaughters/Murders.
Its possible to reliably stay in the 30-45cm range. Last game I played against IN, not a single IN cruiser was able to use batteries or lances on me throughout the entire game.
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Ok, so I think we have narrowed it down. If you squadron all your Carnages together AND stay abeam AND plan on fighting under 30cm AND there are no blast markers in the way AND your targets will largely be capital ships and defenses, then the Carnage is your ship. With the exception of Eldar, lance Murders are better in every other situation.
Of course if youre planning on fighting inside 30cm you'd be much better off taking Slaughters.
Firstly, there's very little reason not to squadron Carnages. Squadron rules have large downsides mostly, but with their resilience due to aspect and position it's not such a large problem. Secondly, there's no reason to not stay abeam. This is the preferred stance. Closing is a side-effect of the other ships. To be used effectively they must close. Thirdly, there is no need at all to "plan" at fighting under 30cm range. This will happen regardless of what your plans are. The Carnage is useful for taking the initiative, since you have range, firepower and resilience (for little cost) the enemy is forced to react to you. In other words, they can't just sit back and turn it into a long range slugfest. They will close to make reply. When they do, your firepower gets better. If I simply took a Slaughter instead then my opponents wouldn't have to close on me. I'd have to close on them. Therefore they'd have the resilience and initiative, not I. Fourthly you will have clean shots with the vast majority of your Carnage attacks. It is the nature of the game. You start clean and your opponent leaves his BMs behind when he moves. You are moving sideways, leaving behind any BMs on your own ships, leaving the interim clear. It is only when you get up close and personal that BMs become an issue for the Carnages, but not even then is it a consistent worry and is more than made up for by the extra firepower of the Carnage and loss of long range shifts. So basically you've narrowed it down to: "IF you're fighting under the most common conditions in the game and/or against an unknown fleet THEN take Carnages, ELSE Murders are usable". :-\
As for capital ships, well actually, since abeam escorts at long range are not a threat they will not be a primary target of your Carnages. If you're playing against a predominantly escort fleet then at some of those escorts must be closing, else the escort fleet will be destroyed by long range fire without ever firing a single shot of their own. The vast majority of escorts in the game are 5+ armour. Against these targets the Carnage performs better than the Murder. 1.33 average hits vs 1 hit (41% chance of destroying an escort vs 25% from the Murder). There are a few escorts which have 6+ armour, mainly Orks with 6+ prows. For which the Carnages will only have an average of 0.67 hits (13% chance of a kill). Of course, the Orks have 4+ rear armour which the Carnages will make better use of and you do have Devs with lances and a-boats to back up your Carnages, and you do get more shots at long range since you're not closing on them but hey, if you have a strong feeling that you're going to be coming up against an all escort Ork fleet then feel free to take Murders. Don't complain to me when those Ork gunships hit your ships hard on their glass chins though.
The supremacy of the Carnage is not so clean cut as Sigi and Horizon have made it sound. If youre playing slop, especially under 2000pts, with no real strategy then the squdroned Carnage is a good all rounder. But if you have a plan and are savvy to how a Chaos fleet can work, youre better off with Slaughters/Murders.
What? If you're playing "slop" then take Murders. They have the "don't care" weaponry. Weapon batteries are much harder to use, but given the strength of the Carnages weaponry and the most common conditions under which you find yourself during a game they easily make up for the "no-brainer" Murders with only a modicum of thought. Hell, the fact that people bring up blast markers and abeam capital ships at long range just goes to show that they have not thought through the starting conditions and progress of a typical battle. They simply let their fears of bad performance and terror of 6's rule them. The Murder has no actual advantage over the Carnage. It is a liability. Sure, under certain circumstances it can gain higher average hits. They will not, however, get higher average hits over the course of an entire game. As the game progresses and conditions change those changes will favour the Carnage more than the Murder. Furthermore, since the game is about 3 things (damage, resilience and positioning/range) the Carnage wins hands down in the positioning/range department, increasing resilience and taking initiative (ie, forcing the enemy to react). Any momentary loss of pure firepower is both minimal and compensated for by these other advantages.
Its possible to reliably stay in the 30-45cm range. Last game I played against IN, not a single IN cruiser was able to use batteries or lances on me throughout the entire game.
I call bullshit. There is no way to do what you say. Against a closing fleet you cannot stay at range. It simply can't be done. The best you could do is fly directly away from your enemy using carriers to "fire" behind you. You will run out of board doing this. I also find it impossible to believe that you destroyed an entire fleet before they got to within 30cm. You would need absolutely stupendous luck to do this, for which you'd require Carnages anyway, not Murders.
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It doesn't take stupendous luck, Sigoroth--just a stupendously incompetent opponent. Luck would do it, but, frankly, it seems less likely.
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It was a 1k battle. I had 2 Devs, a Murder, a Carnage and an Acheron. He had 2 Lunars, 2 Dictators, a Dauntless ans a pair of Swords.
He set up facing straight towards me. I set up abeam to him. As he closed I turned wide and formed a line astern about 35cm off his flank. He turned into me as I was out of range of his guns. I brought down one Lunar over 3 turns and 'flaming tombed' the other after it rammed one Dev. Then I hulked one Dictator and two ships dueled with his remaining Dictator. My Carnage ran off with his Dauntless and Escorts. Despite firing broadsides twice at the closing Dauntless the Carnage did only 1 point of damage.
I took damage and lost 2 ships, but it was entirely fue to ordnance and ramming. No IN broadsides were ever fired.
I pulled a similar manouver against Taggerung to dodge his Ork torp shotgun tactic. I got around his flank at a distance out of his range. He couldn't turn to face me and fight so he disengaged. Blew up a BB before he did it, but still disengaged. I wouldn't say it was luck and I definately wouldn't call Taggerung incompetent at all. He's actually a very good player.
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Well to be fair...if I had realized about the hulks on the table rule, I wouldn't have disengaged lol. I should have just burned retro's and came about. Oh well, won't happen again.
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True. You would have been better off sticking around.
I only brought it up as a 2nd example of avoiding getting into close in broadside battles. Its very possible to manouver in a way that allows a Chaos fleet to stay at range.
I look forward to hulking Gorbag someday, btw ;)
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Gorbag has yet to even be crippled. She is my flagship, and despite being right in the front...is never targeted lol
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Gorbag is my Bismark.
But it hasn't been up front for me yet. There has been a bunch of terror ships and escorts in the way. But it will happen. Oh yes. It will happen. ::)
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True. You would have been better off sticking around.
I only brought it up as a 2nd example of avoiding getting into close in broadside battles. Its very possible to manouver in a way that allows a Chaos fleet to stay at range.
What are you talking about? He rammed you. His decision not to shoot you was his own. Even with ramming he could have shot at you with reduced firepower. Also, from your description of taking multiple turns to destroy a ship, and some ships "duelling" I still don't see how he did not fire a shot. It is almost like he deliberately tried to avoid getting a firing solution.
Setup 60cm away, first IN turn AAF 30-38cm, shotgun full strength torps into Chaos ships, now within 30cm range. Enemy cannot get out of range of potential broadside fire given relative positions and speeds. Chaos can avoid getting hit by both broadsides, or at least forestall it for a turn or two, but on the IN second turn they'll be shooting broadside guns.
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Not getting a single shot? Woooooofus!
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Sigiroth, is that how you set up against IN?
For that matter, do your opponents come straight into your Carnage's broadsides at close range?
These are strange concepts for a 'veteran'...
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I don't think I've ever played a game with Gorbag where it didn't die. Generally my opponents focus on killing it first.
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Taggerung is very wiley. His fleet consisted of mostly Terror ships with some Ravagers. Lots of torpedos. He would AAF and shotgun them and Gorbag stayed in the rear for long range fire support. I had more pressing matters than Gorbag for the first 3 turns. After I slipped around his flank I was planning on spending some alone time with her, but alas she disengaged.